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Week 2 of Highly Inaccurate Sports Prognostication

In Week 1 Jason Baier had probably the greatest sports prognostication week of his life. Admittedly, Week 1 games are always pretty easy to pick, but he only missed ONE game. He missed Grand View beating Drake mercilessly. Yes, once again this year I will not count it against you if you picked Iowa State to win and they don’t. I also won’t give you credit for picking against Iowa State and getting it right. My game. My rules.

So here are the Week 1 Standings:

1. Jason Baier – 17-1 .944
2. Russell Kennerly – 14-2 .875
3. Christopher D. Bennett – 14-4 .778

Although I should deduct points to RMK for being too cowardly to pick a winner in the FSU-OSU game and the Boone-Ballard game.

There is no real reason to dwell on Iowa State’s shellacking. It was maybe the most pathetic thing I’ve seen in Jack Trice Stadium. Up there with their loss to Drake back in 1985. Drake dropped football the next year.

I don’t care how good the Bizon are in their division, there is absolutely no excuse for getting completely whipped by a Divsion Whatever opponent. Especially not 2 years in a row!

We could go over went wrong, but it seemed like everything went wrong. To make matters worse, we lost Bundrage for the season. By far our most explosive offensive threat, gone. 4 plays into the season. On a running play. Maybe this is why Todd Blythe never blocked. As sad and as pathetic as our “new” offense looked, the defense wasn’t much better.

They gave up over 500 yards.
The last touchdown run of the game was over 60 yards by a fat, short dude that I’m pretty sure I could have ran down.
A cornerback was our leading tackler. (Tribune with 11)
A backup safety was the 2nd leading tackler. (Syrie with 9)
Another safety was the 4th leading tackler. (Mutcherson with 8)

The good news about the defense is that their problems looked to be from being in the wrong place and not from missed tackles. It is easier to correct players being in the wrong place than it is missing tackles. Most of the issues on defense come from inexperience. That will be fixed over time (unless we keep getting players thrown out of the game for bogus targeting penalties), but in the meantime, the defense is going to be rough.

The good news for the offense? Until Farniok went out of the game, the offense looked pretty good. After he left the game? The offense looked an awful lot like last year’s offense.

But why dwell on the past? That is what Nebraska fans do.

THE ONLY GAME THAT MATTERS

This week’s opponent: Kansas State. Basically North Dakota State. Only bigger, faster, and stronger. Quarterbacked by a quarterback that wanted to come to Iowa State and we were like, “Nah, we’re good.”

Kansas State is 1 of 2 conference opponents that Paul Rhoads has not defeated. (Okay, technically he never defeated Texas A&M or Missouri, but are we really going to count those turncoats?)

This made me wonder, has an Iowa State coach ever defeated all of their conference opponents.?

Chizik – he ONLY defeated Colorado and Kansas State. Yeah, it could always be worse. Remember that guy?
McCarney – Never beat Texas or Oklahoma
Walden – Never beat Colorado, beat Oklahoma AND Nebraska. Never beat Colorado
Criner – Never beat Oklahoma or Nebraska
Duncan – Never beat Oklahoma, Nebraska or KANSAS!! Did tie Oklahoma once though.
Bruce – Never beat Oklahoma
Majors – Never beat Nebraska, Colorado, or Oklahoma
Stapleton – Never beat Missouri. Tied Missouri once.

That goes all the way back to 1958, when Oklahoma State rejoined the Big 8!

Paul Rhoads has made a career out of exorcising many of Iowa State’s historical demons. I think he will be the first coach since God knows when to have bested every team in our conference. First Kansas State, then Oklahoma.

I know what you are thinking, Iowa State just got crushed by a school that has 1300 students, if you count goats. Which I do.

But one thing Paul Rhoads does well is circle the wagons.

The week before he beat Texas, He lost 52-0 to Oklahoma.

Paul Rhoads circles the wagons. The defense licks it wounds and mans up. They force 3 turnovers. Richardson explodes for a huge game, finally. Touchdowns by West, Bibbs, Nealy, and Daley.

Iowa State 28 Kansas State 24

OTHER CYCLONE STATE GAMES

Iowa struggles to get by Ball State
Drake rebounds to knock off Truman State
Grand View punishes Graceland

BIG 12 MATCHUPS

(4) Oklahoma pounds Tulsa
Oklahoma State puts 70 on Missouri State
Kansas nips SE Missouri State
Texas barely gets by BYU
West Virginia creams Towson
(10) Baylor shuts out Northwestern State
Texas Tech (a team wildly overrated by Jason Baier) struggles to get past UTEP

TOP 25 MATCHUPS

(8) Michigan State beats up on (3) Oregon in a rare Big Ten Power 5 win.
(11) Stanford manhandles (15) USC

BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK

Michigan knocks off (17) Notre Dame

SEC GAME OF THE WEEK

Tennessee over Arkansas State but close.

PAC 12 GAME OF THE WEEK

Arizona over UTSA

ACC GAME OF THE WEEK

(5) Ohio State pounds Virginia Tech – Another rare Big Ten Power 5 win, if you consider the ACC a Power 5 conference, which I don’t.

Coach Mac Bowl Watch

SMU over North Texas, sorry Coach Mac, rebuilding year.

NO FUN LEAGUE Games of Moderate Interest

As you may or may not know, I don’t live in or have ever lived in:

New York
Washington D. C.
Philadelphia
Dallas
Minnesota
Green Bay
Detroit
Chicago
New Orleans
Atlanta
North or South Carolina
Tampa Bay
Seattle
San Francisco
St. Louis
Miami
Boston or New England
Buffalo
Baltimore
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
Cleveland
Houston
Tennessee
Jacksonville
Indianapolis
Denver
Oakland
San Diego
Kansas City

So, I don’t really have any passion for the NFL. Most of my picks are based on whether or not Tony Romo plays for a particular team or not.

Seahawks over Packers
Saints over Falcons
Ravens over Bengals
Bears over Bills
Chiefs over Titans
49ers over Romo
Broncos over Colts
Lions over Giants
Cardinals over Chargers

Friday Night Lights

Boone Toreadors pound the Gilbert Tigers. It was embarrassing enough to lose to a town without a grocery store last week. No way it happens twice. Plus Tigers? That is like not even trying with your nickname.
Fort Dodge Dodgers over the Sioux City North Stars. I hate nicknames that try to get cutesy.
Audubon Wheelers over the IKM-Manning Wolves. Wolves are a badass animal, but as a sports team nickname – G-E-N-E-R-I-C. You are a half step away from being the Wildcats.

As always, please feel free to place your predictions in the COMMENTS section.

Week 1 of Highly Inaccurate Sports Prognostication

Usually I only share this info with Baier, RMK, and Dre, but I feel there is just too much knowledge in this gulliver not to share it with the world (wide web).

THE ONLY GAME THAT MATTERS

Everybody knows that North Dakota State has dominated their level of football over the last 3 years, but here are some facts you might not know about North Dakota State, besides that their fan base can’t even pronounce the word bison correctly.

3 Straight FCS National Championships
The last time they lost: November 13, 2012 – 17-14 to Indiana State
The last time they gave up more than 30 points: December 11, 2010 – 38 points by Eastern Washington
The last time they lost to an FBS School: September 3, 2009 – 34-17 to Iowa State
Since then they have won 4 straight games against FBS schools:

Kansas 6-3
Minnesota 37-24
Colorado State 22-7
Kansas State 24-21

Their equivalent of our Cyclone Fanatic (on the Cyclone Fanatic Radio Show) even predicted that they would club us 35-14! Adding: “I’d be shocked if they (Iowa State) can score 17.”

There is a lot to respect about the Bison program, but one thing should be clear. This isn’t the same team that won those 3 titles. Gone is their coach. Gone is most of their starters. Heck, their AD is even gone.

But I’m a big believer in the Pete Bell philosophy:

l’ll tell him exactly
what we’re gonna do.
l’ll give him our offense.
l’ll give him our defense.
Because it’s not what you do.
godd*mn it. it’s how you do it.

Meaning the outcome of this game won’t be decided by what has changed in Fargo, or wherever North Dakota State calls home, it will be the changes in Ames.

Finally, we have a real offensive coordinator. Finally, we have a dedicated quarterbacks coach. Finally, we have an offensive line coach that the players like and respect. Finally, we have speed and talent all over the place.

Yes, there is reason for concern on defense. Yes, we lost 1 of my all-time favorite Cyclones in Washington. Yes, we lost our best linebacker. Yes, the defensive line lost (allegedly) its two most talented interior linemen.

But, we still have the wizard in Wally Burnham as our DC. I’m buying the hype on Mutcherson and Cotton-Moya at safety. I’m buying the hype of the deep and talented linebacker core (I hope Levi Peters sees some time on the field this year. He has the potential to be one of my all-time favorite Cyclones.) I’m buying into the Corey Morrissey hype. I think Jensen and Cousin will be good enough in the middle of the line.

But more than anything, Iowa State needs this game. They need to get the taste of last year’s UNI debacle out of their system. They need to be just like Bull Hurley (from the CITIZEN KANE of arm wrestling movies OVER THE TOP):

He doesn’t even belong on my arm wrestling table. That’s my area, that’s my game, and he’s got no sh*ttin’ business there. And all I want to do is hurt him, cripple him, get him off the table. And so he never dares try to compete against me again.

The Cyclones need to put a hurt on the Bison so that they never dare to try to compete against us again. (Although they will be able to use the excuse that they already aren’t on our schedule through 2020.)

You might be thinking, “Man, that is kind of harsh attitude to take against a little FCS school.”

Allow me to retort:

There isn’t much I remember about that 2009 encounter with the Bison in Jack Trice Stadium. But I do remember this: North Dakota State fans are one of the most annoying fan bases I have ever encountered.

Here is the current Top 5 (College Football Division)Most Annoying Fanbases I have personally encountered:

1. Nebraska
2. Iowa
3. Alabama
4. North Dakota State
5. Missouri

Even while Iowa State was throttling them, they displayed the Nebraska fans’ level of arrogance (FCS level albeit) and Iowa fans’ ability to make excuses (FCS level albeit).

So what will happen?

Gone will be their 24 game winning streak.
Gone will be their 4 game winning streak against FBS schools.
Gone will be their 30 point defensive streak.

North Dakota State likes to play ball control offense. They will try, but after 3 quick scores from Bundrage, Bibbs, and Nealy they will be forced to play catch up. Allowing ISU to pin its ears back and go after the quarterback. A big game from Morrissey and Trent Taylor on the line. A pick by Tribune and another by Mutcherson. This one is over early.

The BiZon go softly into the mid-afternoon.

Cyclones 35 North Dakota State 14

OTHER GAMES IN THE CYCLONE STATE

Saturday is the favorite day of the year for Panther fans. No matter what, their favorite team will win.

UNI’s David Johnson is a stud. He will play in the NFL some day. UNI plays a tougher schedule in a tougher conference. They maybe be the better team, but I don’t believe that UNI can ever give full effort against Iowa. Since all Panthers secretly want to be Hawkeyes, they will find it tough to knock off their idols. But it will be close.

Iowa 24 UNI 21

Last year Grand View upset Drake and then went on to win a national championship. In many ways, this was just a big of an upset as UNI beating Iowa State. Bigger actually. Drake didn’t have The Mess as their offensive coordinator. That being said, I think Grand View repeats. Their coaching staff is just that good or or just that psychotic. Take your choice.

Little known fact: Although he’ll deny it, Grand View is Corey Faust’s alma mater.

Grand View 21 Drake 10

TOP 25 MATCHUPS

(21) Texas A&M 52 (9) South Carolina 28 Johnny Manziel not missed. Not even a little bit.
(13) LSU blows out (14) Wisconsin
(12) Georgia big over (16) Clemson, sorry if you’re in the ACC and your name isn’t Florida State, you aren’t beating a ranked SEC team.

BIG 12 GAMES

(2) Alabama kills West Virginia
(4) Oklahoma mauls Louisiana Tech
TCU nips Samford
Texas Tech humiliates Central Arkansas
(20) Kansas State pounds SF Austin
North Texas (COACH MAC!) shocks Texas
(1) Florida State pounds Oklahoma State (despite struggling early because Oklahoma State has such an ugly stadium that it is distracting)
(10) Baylor whips SMU

BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK

Navy shocks (5) Ohio State – My niece is in the Navy. That may have influenced this pick.

SEC GAME OF THE WEEK

(6) Auburn blasts Arkansas – It feels good to be able to cheer for Auburn again.

PAC 12 GAME OF THE WEEK

(15) USC bounces Fresno State despite the fact that their coach is a racist… apparently.

ACC GAME OF THE WEEK

(7) UCLA whips Virginia – God the ACC is a terrible conference. Just…. absolutely…. terrible!

FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

I pick these games based entirely on who has the better mascot.

Boone Toreadors embarrass the Ballardville Bombers in every conceivable way.
Sioux City West Wolverines trounce the Fort Dodge Dodgers
Audubon Wheelers nip the A-H-S-T, Avoca Vikings – These Vikings clearly stole their logo from the Minnesota Vikings. D- for effort.

Feel free to add your predictions to the comments section of this here blog entry.