I thought it wouldn’t hurt to give some predictions on tonight’s Academy Awards. At least the categories that I think I can write semi-competently about.

Adapted Screenplay

The nominees are…

• 127 Hours
• The Social Network
• Toy Story 3
• True Grit
• Winter’s Bone

I have seen all 5 of these movies and read none of the source material.

I want to win: The Social Network.  This is the most brilliant script of the year.  Adapted or otherwise.

I think will win: The Social Network. I repeat, the most brilliant script of the year.

Original Screenplay

The nominees are…

• Another Year
• The Fighter
• Inception
• The Kids Are All Right
• The King’s Speech

I have seen all the nominees except for Another Year.

I want to win: The Fighter.  Although Inception is my favorite of the nominees, The Fighter brings to life better characters.  Although the script isn’t without its flaws.

I think will win: The King’s Speech. Even though it isn’t one of my favorite movies from this year, it is a solid script that centers around 2 very interesting characters.

Documentary Feature

The nominees are…

• Exit through the Gift Shop
• Gasland
• Inside Job
• Restrepo
• Waste Land

I have not seen Inside Job or Waste Land.

I want to win: Gasland. Flammable water. That is all I need to say.

I think will win: Restrepo. War documentaries seem to do well in this category and this is well-done.

Animated Feature

The nominees are…

• How to Train Your Dragon
• The Illusionist
• Toy Story 3

I have seen all 3 nominees.

I want to win: How to Train Your Dragon. I think this movie is the funniest and best of the 3. I admit to being partial to dragon movies.

I think will win: Toy Story 3. They might as well just retire this category and give the award to Pixar every year. Toy Story 3 is nominated for Best Picture and the other 2 are not.

Supporting Actress

The nominees are…

• Amy Adams in The Fighter
• Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech
• Melissa Leo in The Fighter
• Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit
• Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom

I have seen 4 of 5 nominees. I have not seen Animal Kingdom.

I want to win: Melissa Leo. That is hard for me to say, since I think everybody knows my favorite actress is Amy Adams, but I have to confess that Melissa Leo is even better than her in this movie.

I think will win: Melissa Leo. Although there is potential to split The Fighter votes, I still think Leo will win. It still annoys me that Hailee Steinfeld is in the Supporting Actress category, when she clearly should be nominated for Best Actress.

Supporting Actor

The nominees are…

• Christian Bale in The Fighter
• John Hawkes in Winter’s Bone
• Jeremy Renner in The Town
• Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right
• Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech

I have seen all 5 nominees.

I want to win: Christian Bale. Even though I want to hate Christian Bale he is tremendous in this role. There are some great performances by the other nominees, but I think this is the biggest no-brainer category of this year.

I think will win: Christian Bale. Any other year, Geoffrey Rush would have won this category. He chose a bad year to have his best performance since Shine.

Leading Actress

The nominees are…

• Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right
• Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole
• Jennifer Lawrence in Winter’s Bone
• Natalie Portman in Black Swan
• Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine

I have seen 4 of the 5 nominees. I have not seen Rabbit Hole.

I want to win: Michelle Williams. I think she had the most interesting performance of the year, but the nomination was the award for her. I would also like to see Jennifer Lawrence win. She gave a pretty amazing performance for somebody who’s biggest accomplishment before this was being on The Bill Engvall Show.

I think will win: Natalie Portman. There is no denying that her performance is great.

Leading Actor

The nominees are…

• Javier Bardem in Biutiful
• Jeff Bridges in True Grit
• Colin Firth in The King’s Speech
• Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network
• James Franco in 127 Hours

I have seen 4 of the 5 nominees. I have not seen Biutiful.

I want to win: James Franco. Eisenberg is great. I have no clue why Jeff Bridges is even nominated. I didn’t know that mumbling was considered great acting. Franco’s was my favorite performance and he spent most of the movie trapped under a rock.

I think will win: Colin Firth. As much as I hate royalty, Firth is pretty amazing as the king with the stuttering problem. Oscars frequently go to actors portraying people with a disability. This is the only 1 of the 5 performances that involves a disability, unless Rooster Cogburn is suffering from a disability that doesn’t allow him to enunciate words properly.

Directing

The nominees are…

• Black Swan
• The Fighter
• The King’s Speech
• The Social Network
• True Grit

I have seen all 5 nominees.

I want to win: The Social Network. David Fincher is one of my favorite directors and I felt that he was in a little bit of a slump. He hit the ball out of the park with The Social Network.

I think will win: I just can’t imagine a world where The Social Network doesn’t win this award.

Best Picture

The nominees are…

• Black Swan
• The Fighter
• Inception
• The Kids Are All Right
• The King’s Speech
• 127 Hours
• The Social Network
• Toy Story 3
• True Grit
• Winter’s Bone

I’ve seen all 10 nominees.

I want to win: The Social Network. It is the most complete well-rounded movie of the year. It is my favorite movie of the year and it is also the most entertaining.

I think will win: The Social Network. It is the most original movie of the year, so that works against it slightly. However, I think the Academy has done a pretty good job in the last few years getting this category right. I have full faith that they will get it right again.
That is it for my preview. Enjoy the Oscars!